Today, 1 Oct 2026
XRP about $1.49. 1h RSI 44. 4h RSI 46. Dif slightly negative. No band hit. No entry.
An entry row appears only when RSI is 1–20 or 80–99, or Dif is in the locked percent band, and that zone still has at least 30 cases with a positive median after the fee.
Current seed bands
| Setup | Side | Cases | Win | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h RSI 1–20 | Long | 178 | 71.3% | +1.74% |
| 1h RSI 80–99 | Short | 304 | 57.9% | +0.84% |
| 4h RSI 1–20 | Long | 55 | 72.7% | +2.63% |
| 4h RSI 80–99 | Short | 112 | 58.9% | +1.54% |
| 1h Dif stretched down | Long | 1,832 | 55.9% | +0.56% |
| 1h Dif stretched up | Short | 823 | 57.5% | +0.89% |
The short rows win more often than they lose, but the average is negative. A few large adverse moves sit in those buckets. Trust the median.
1h RSI slices
| RSI | Better side | Win | Median |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1–20 | Long | 71.3% | +1.74% |
| 20–30 | Long | 54.0% | +0.24% |
| 40–50 | None | 49.3% | −0.03% |
| 80–99 | Short | 57.9% | +0.84% |
The middle, where today sits, is a coin flip. That is why quiet days are logged and not shown as signals.
When the 1h oversold long hit
| Clock | Cases | Win | Median |
|---|---|---|---|
| US open | 14 | 57.1% | +0.71% |
| US close | 21 | 71.4% | +1.66% |
| US closed | 43 | 74.4% | +1.99% |
| Weekend | 51 | 72.5% | +1.57% |
Not a US-open event. Fed days were about 3% of these hits, not the driver.
Book snapshot, 1 Oct 2026 13:11 UTC
Mid $1.48. Not in band. About $54k resting within 0.5% above, $60k within 0.5% below. No order over $50k. One quiet reading, not a correlation yet.